As elections approach, how has President Faye changed Senegal?

Senegal’s populist duo of President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, who were only released from prison days before they were elected in March’s dramatic polls, were regarded as the harbingers of change.

Their arrival in power after their defeat of incumbent Macky Sall was greeted with celebrations in the street as supporters excitedly claimed that Faye would root out corruption, provide wealth and prosperity for the people, and prove more assertive in negotiations with foreign investors.

In line with campaign pledges, the government declared plans to renegotiate natural resource contracts, while inspections were called in every ministry and departing ministers were ordered to provide an account of their management. The government also suspended construction on the coastline near Dakar, to provide time to inspect the laws underpinning building plans in ‘sensitive’ areas more closely.

Further symbolic actions ensued. In May, Faye refused a welcome home party when he returned from a trip to Cote d’Ivoire, explaining that such activities were a waste of resources and time. The government also published reports from the accounts courts and the National Office for the Fight against Fraud and Corruption, as well as the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, all of which had been kept under wraps under President Sall.

Tackling corruption was singled out as a priority – members of government were given a month to resign from other elected positions they held, prompting Sonko to leave his role as mayor of Ziguinchor. The languishing, slow and inefficient civil service had tighter working hours imposed.

In an effort to quickly reduce the cost of living, a pressing concern for many Senegalese, the government cut the price of basic commodities, including bread, palm oil and sugar.

Too much, too fast?

These actions have raised alarm bells in some financial institutions. The IMF released a report in September, pointing to an economic slowdown and growth in the first quarter of a lower-than-expected 2.3%.

“Economic activity weakened in the first half of 2024 and prospects remain challenging for the remainder of the year. The fiscal position is expected to deteriorate amid lower revenue collections and increased expenditure on energy subsidies and interest payments,” the Fund reported.

“Macroeconomic prospects for the remainder of 2024 remain challenging. Real GDP growth is now projected at 6.0 percent, a downward revision from the 7.1 percent forecast in June 2024.”

Investor groups have expressed their concerns.

“The IMF report is absolutely right, the investment environment has really slowed down,” says the European Chamber of Commerce. “We have not seen any new projects since the election, and it has got worse since the summer… We are concerned that the government does not have a plan”.

“The new government has had absolutely no positive impact on anything to do with business or investment in Senegal”, argues a Senegalese entrepreneur in Dakar.

“Ever since they arrived, they have just brandished the threat of punishment for people and companies which don’t pay their taxes, which is fair enough, but in a country like Senegal there are more subtle ways of doing this.”

The entrepreneur is concerned that the government’s approach has longer term negative consequences. “Lots of companies are going to leave”, he says, “And this will leave many people without work and lots of things won’t work anymore because they are deploying a discourse not of collaboration but of repression”.

…or business as usual?

Not everyone holds this view, however, and some suggest that little has fundamentally changed since President Faye took office: his bark, they claim, is much worse than his bite.

“There have been little to no observable changes in the government’s approach to Western commercial interests and investments”, says Byron Cabrol, senior Africa analyst at political consultancy Dragonfly Intelligence.

“President Faye repeatedly campaigned for ‘greater sovereignty’ and called for a review of existing partnerships with Western countries. But he seems to have toned down his rhetoric since taking office.”

Indeed, despite some persistent concerns, in many ways, it has been business as usual. The government’s planned renegotiation of extractive contracts has been watered down to a review of contracts to ensure legal compliance by companies.  

The commission that has been created to review contracts is generally approved of by businesses. It is large but does not seem particularly threatening to the strategically important and nascent oil and gas industry, which is forecast to boost Senegal’s growth to around 10% in 2025.

The commission includes people who are well known and liked within the oil and gas sector, including from the Ministry of Finance, who are likely to provide a relatively balanced view.

Ultimately, the government may consider rewriting the petroleum code as a way of appeasing its supporters to whom it pledged a shake up of the oil and gas sector. But for now, it seems that little is likely to drastically change for petroleum investors.

The government appears to recognise the importance of keeping the industry on side and has met with senior oil and gas figures from foreign companies since being elected, albeit in private.

The government’s approach seems to be to undertake strategic, small-scale actions to appease its supporters, while also keeping up alliances with most businesses. For instance, in July the government cancelled a CFA 459bn contract with Acwa Power, a Saudi Arabian country, for the construction of a desalination plant.

This was bold, given the size of the contract, but given it had only recently been signed and construction had not begun, was more of symbolic move than indicative of a broader move towards contract cancellation. The government’s softer approach to business has been positively noted by many foreign businesses, according to Cabrol.

“I have not seen any indications that either local or international firms are significantly changing their plans in Senegal since Faye’s election. Rather the transfer of power appears to have ended a period of political volatility prompted by Macky Sall’s attempts to delay the vote and extend his time in power.

“For now, most of the population and the business community seems to view Faye’s leadership favourably.”

Critics speak out

Not everyone agrees.

“They are failing, with regard to what they promised to the Senegalese people,” claims the Dakar entrepreneur.

Critics say that negative aspects of the Sall presidency pervade the new government, including a recourse to repression and constraints on freedom of speech.

In August, there was a national press strike to protest against a crackdown on the media. Two opposition figures were sentenced to three months in prison for the diffusion of “fake news” in June and magistrates involved in a controversial rape case brought against Sonko prior to his election have been marginalised by being relocated to less influential parts of the country.

Sonko was cleared of rape but sentenced to two years in jail for “corrupting youth” in charges that he insisted were politically motivated. He was freed in March prior to the election.

Signs of political patronage have also not disappeared since the new government took office. In July, there was criticism from civil society when Sonko appointed Sophie Nzinga Sy, daughter of the minister of foreign affairs, as director for the Agency from the Promotion of Artisanal Development.

An electoral test

The government may just be getting to grips with its newfound power. Many of those in the administration are inexperienced and are still navigating the move from opposition to government. The lack of a majority in the national assembly has also constrained them in their ability to introduce genuine change. This could change in November’s parliamentary elections.  

According to Cabrol, “Given that Faye became president in April and still seems popular, his party has a good chance of securing a majority in the parliamentary elections. This would allow him to advance his legislative agenda.”

However, there does not seem to be an underlying desire to fundamentally change Senegal since coming to office. In August, Faye appointed Aminata Toure, a former prime minister under President Sall, as a senior representative. Toure has long since fallen out with Sall and has sought to distance herself from the previous government. Still, her appointment is indicative of continuity with the status quo.  

While some businesses and international institutions are concerned about the government’s economic impact, little seems to have fundamentally changed since Faye came to office.

As Cabrol points out, “The absence of explicitly anti-Western policies so far is a deliberate choice by Faye. Despite his pre-election rhetoric, he seems to recognise the value of foreign investment. And his apparent moderation in approach does not seem to be in response to pressure from parliament or the former ruling party.”