Brazil’s Lula sees Africa as key part of multipolar vision

“I am aware that we have to have a preferential relationship with Africa,” Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said at a press conference in Addis Ababa last year.

“Not only because Africa is part of our history, our culture, our way of being, our way of speaking, our way of singing, our colour, but also because Africa is an extraordinary place for the future to those who believe that the Global South will be the novelty of the 21st century in the new world economy.”

Lula has long recognised that Brazil shares many geopolitical and economic goals with Africa. Like many of his counterparts in Africa and elsewhere in the “Global South,” Lula sees the increasing emergence of a multipolar world order as a chance to create new institutions that are less dominated by the West and are a fairer reflection of the global balance of political and economic power.

For Lula, this is not just about strengthening trade flows but about reshaping the architecture of international relations. Brazil’s participation in forums such as BRICS, alongside African nations such as South Africa and Ethiopia, demonstrates his belief in South-South cooperation for providing emerging markets with a stronger voice and in collectively unlocking economic growth opportunities.

“Africa, with its 1.5bn inhabitants and its immense and rich territory, has enormous possibilities for the future. Brazil wants to grow alongside Africa but never dictating any paths,” he said. 

Trade ties strengthen

Indeed, Lula, who returned to power in 2022 after initially spending two terms in office between 2003 and 2010, has a track record of encouraging closer business and economic ties between Brazil and the African continent – partly because of his conviction that the economy of the future will be rooted in the Global South.

Between 2003 and 2010, exports from Brazil to Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 25% per year. Overall trade with Africa skyrocketed from $4.2bn at the turn of the century to $25.9bn by 2008.

Lula also committed considerable diplomatic energy to improved relations with Africa, visiting 27 countries on the continent and more than doubling the number of Brazilian embassies from 17 in 2005 to 37 in 2010.

While the value of Brazil-Africa trade has declined since the end of Lula’s first period as president, with Brasilia’s focus on the continent taking a particular backseat during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s return has raised hopes that more fruitful business ties could be in store.

Petrobras leads the way

Perhaps the most obvious starting point for this is in the field of energy and mining. This is partly because the Brazilian government has majority control of Petrobras, Brazil’s enormous $77bn multinational energy, and is therefore able to exert strong influence over its direction.

Indeed, while Petrobras divested assets away from Africa under previous governments in order to focus on exploration within Brazil, Lula’s renewed focus on the continent has encouraged a pivot back towards African markets.

Speaking in June this year, Petrobras’ CEO Magda Chambriard said the company aims to make Africa its largest development region outside of Brazil, noting that the energy space is ripe for collaboration because of geological similarities between the two regions.

“We are experts in the eastern margin of Brazil,” Chambriard said. “The correlation between Brazil and Africa is unequivocal, so we need to go to Africa.”

Petrobras has already made several moves into the African market in the last few months. In 2023, the company bought a stake in an offshore oil field in South Africa to explore the waters off its coast, while in early 2024, Petrobras also purchased a share in oil field in Sao Tome and Principe with the aim of starting to drill a well this year. The Brazilian company also reportedly tried to secure a stake in the Mopane oil field off Namibia but was outbid by the French multinational TotalEnergies.

More moves into the African market can be expected – in June this year, Petrobras secured approval from Côte d’Ivoire for its declaration of interest in nine offshore exploration blocks, the first phase in acquiring the rights to explore these sites.

During a state visit to Brazil last month, Nigeria’s president Bola Tinubu also confirmed that Petrobras planned to re-enter the Nigerian market. Brazil and Nigeria signed a variety of deals aimed at facilitating increased cooperation in a range of industries and allowing Petrobras to play a role in exploring some of the continent’s largest untapped gas reserves.

Responding to the deals signed in Brasilia last month, NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber in Johannesburg, said that “the planned return of Petrobras to Nigeria is a landmark moment that signals confidence in Africa’s energy sector and its long-term growth prospects.”

These efforts to enhance business ties, particularly in the energy space, have been underpinned by work on improving aviation links between the two countries – with Air Peace, West Africa’s largest carrier, running three weekly flights between Lagos and Sao Paulo since November 2023.

Regulatory concerns abound

While it appears that the Lula’s return is providing a boost to Brazil-Africa business ties in key sectors such as energy, some experts believe more work is required to ensure this relationship can reach its full potential.

Igor Macedo de Lucena, CEO of the Amero Group geopolitical consultancy in Sao Paulo and associate fellow at the Chatham House thinktank in London, tells African Business that regulatory concerns can prevent Brazilian companies from committing to the African market.

“The main problem is that some legal frameworks are still too weak, while some African countries do not have a stable rule of law,” he says. “This must be addressed with the use of more international contracts based on British law or other kinds of instruments that can secure investment.”

Macedo de Lucena adds that “inflation and economic uncertainty are other factors that deter some companies, with security another issue that needs to be addressed through reforms to secure long-term investment.”

Despite the progress made in the last couple of years, Macedo de Lucena says “ties could be even stronger” and suggests that “closer relationships forged through the African Union and Mercosur [the South American trading bloc] could unlock more opportunities.”

He argues that “deeper political and economic integration is required – governments can and must address that with the creation of conferences, forums, and instruments that can make greater commercial opportunities a reality.”