What’s at stake in Ghana’s crucial election?

On 7th December, general elections will be held in Ghana to elect the president and parliament. Nearly 18.8 million Ghanaians are registered to vote. 

Ghana’s political arena is dominated by two major parties: The New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This duopoly fosters intense competition. The current vice-president Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama are currently the leading candidates in the polls.

Bawumia served as Nana Akufo-Addo’s vice president for eight years – the incumbent is prevented from running again, having reached his term limits. Mahama previously served as President for four-and-a-half years from 2012, before losing the 2016 elections. 

The other candidates in the list include Nana Kwame Bediako, a prominent businessman, and Alan Kyerematen, the former minister of trade and industry, who left the NPP last year.

Ghana, often hailed as a beacon of democracy in Africa, continues to set a high standard with its electoral processes, with regular peaceful transitions of power since the return to multiparty democracy in 1992. Based on previous years, the results of the elections are expected to be announced by 10 December.

Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House says the outcome is hard to predict.

“This will be a fiercely contested election. Earlier this year I thought NDC would win easily. I am not sure – there could be a second round for the presidential election – and the results in parliament could even go to the NDC but the presidency to the NPP. The truth is we really don’t know until Ghanaians have voted”.

Economy central to contest

Recent elections in Ghana have highlighted several pressing issues, including economic management, with voters being increasingly concerned about inflation, widespread unemployment, the high cost of living, frequent electricity shortages and national debt. 

Jervin Naidoo, political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, argues that the combination of pre-existing issues, such as the reckless borrowing and public expenditure that led to Ghana’s 2022 default, alongside external global shocks, have led to financing pressures, declining international reserves, high inflation and a depreciating cedi. He says that the impact of the commodity slump for the cocoa and oil sector on top of hyperinflation at the end of 2022 means that “people are really tired.”

In May 2023, the IMF approved a 36-month extended credit facility of about $3bn for Ghana, which will last until 2026. On Monday the fund approved the third review of the programme, unlocking an immediate disbursement of about $360m.

Although the programme is reviewed periodically and therefore could be modified following the outcome of the elections, both parties are likely to have to operate within its financial strictures.

Still, within these contraints the parties are trying to carve out space. Naidoo says that Mahama’s party, the NDC, is planning to increase government spending in social sectors. By contrast Bawumia’s party, the NPP, would prioritise economic stability by lowering inflation and attracting private investments. 

“In terms of requests and short-term economic impact there won’t be too much because Ghana is constricted by the IMF programme, so a lot of the fiscal policy from the government is going to be restricted”. 

Bright Simons, a Ghanaian social innovator, entrepreneur, writer, social and political commentator tells African Business that voters’ focus on immediate challenges means parties are not incentivised to promise significant reforms.

A tough road ahead

Foremost among those challenges is inflation. Consumer prices, which have risen for the last three months, rose 23% year-on-year in November from 22.1% in October, with the increase mainly driven by basic foodstuffs.

Meanwhile, the strength of the currency, the cedi, continues to be a major challenge. Like practically every African and emerging market currency, the cedi weakened dramatically against the US dollar during the Covid-19 pandemic.The cedi took a further tumble in 2022, when Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt.

Since the start of 2020, the US dollar has gained almost 180% against the Ghanian cedi, which currently sits at 15 to the dollar, an increase from 11 in May 2023.

Getting to grips with that – while working with the IMF to reform the economy and attract investment – means that whoever wins will face a difficult term in office, according to Vines.

“Whoever runs the next administration has a tough job, in reforming the Ghana economy and attracting renewed and fresh investment for economic growth. The politicians currently are all over-promising and underplaying the tough choices they face – that’s normal though in democratic elections. Their promises need to be cross examined.”