African countries fear Brazil’s COP30 will deliver more of the same 

In November, the Brazilian city of Belém will play host to COP30, the United Nations’ climate change conference, where African negotiators will attempt to make tangible progress on climate mitigation measures despite a more fractured and challenging geopolitical environment.

The upcoming COP summit in Brazil’s Amazonian region comes amid a difficult backdrop. At the previous COP meeting in Baku in November 2024, representatives from Africa and other emerging economies were left disappointed after global leaders committed to mobilising $300bn per year by 2035 to protect developing nations from climate threats.

While this target represents the largest climate finance commitment the global community has ever agreed to, it is also a fraction of the $1.2tn developing nations had argued was necessary.

Ali Mohamed, Kenya’s special envoy and chair of the African Group of Negotiators at COP29, condemned the commitment as “totally unacceptable and inadequate” and suggested the lower funding pledges would “lead to unacceptable loss of life in Africa and around the world.”

Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, research officer at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, tells African Business that the perceived failure of the COP29 talks in Baku means that “hope is dying down in Africa when it comes to the COP process in general.”

“Every year we go to a COP, we have expectations and then get let down after let down. That is where we are – most African negotiators are starting to feel very frustrated. There is a big sense of disillusionment.”

The most inaccessible COP in memory? 

While Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (pictured above with Brazil’s COP30 president Andre Correa do Lago) has often emphasised the importance he places on “South-South” cooperation with Africa and other emerging economies, logistical challenges in the run-up to this year’s COP has hardly helped dispel the sentiment that Africa’s voice struggles to be heard at COP summits.

At the start of July, representatives of African countries and Pacific island nations approached the Brazilian government with concerns that the soaring cost of travel and accommodation in Belém would potentially end up excluding poorer countries from the talks.

Indeed, Juan Carlos Monterrey, a climate negotiator from Panama, says COP30 could become “the most inaccessible COP in recent memory.”

Despite the disillusionment, Mkumbeni says that African negotiators are continuing to engage with the COP summit – not least because of how high she says the stakes are.

“Last year was the hottest year ever recorded, and Africa finds itself heating at a much faster rate than the rest of the world – it is around 1.5 times higher than the global average,” she says. “The stresses that we have seen on the continent have been at a much more intensified rate and that is already having severe consequences.”

“Climate change is also a threat multiplier for Africa – it is combined with other risks such as poverty, the continent’s dependence on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, and fragile governance structures.”

“These are compounded vulnerabilities that exist in addition to climate change, and that is a dangerous mix where environmental stresses can escalate into greater instability and conflict.”

However, Mkumbeni also fears that the more fractured trading and geopolitical environment which has emerged, in combination with the United States’ disengagement from climate processes, will make it more difficult to take action.

“International relations are strained and the tenser geopolitics, the competition, the trade barriers – all of this complicates the upcoming COP,” she says. “These tensions make it more difficult for African to secure climate finance, technology transfers, and to reduce emissions.”

Making the rich world pay 

Heading into COP30, Africa’s main priority is securing greater access to climate finance – funds that would allow the continent to adopt low-carbon technologies, put in place mitigations against climate risks, and invest in sustainable growth.

Brazil’s Lula has suggested that more economically advanced countries should commit further funding and ultimately to reach the $1.2tn annual target which emerging economies demanded at the previous summit.

The Brazilian president said in April this year that “wealthy nations – those that have benefited the most from the carbon-based economy – must assume their responsibilities. It is up to them to advance climate neutrality goals and scale up financing to meet the $1.2tn target.”

But particularly in the context of sluggish global growth – average forecasts for G20 economies stands at 2.9% for 2025 – it is perhaps unlikely that developed economy governments will commit to mobilising significant extra funds.

Can the private sector do more?  

As government seek to reduce their external commitments, one idea which has gathered momentum is that of “blended finance” – the use of a relatively small amount of public money in order to catalyse private sector investment into sustainable development.

However, Mkumbeni argues that Africa should be sceptical of agreeing to private sector funding. “Africa is pushing for more funds and also for stronger mechanisms to address non-economic losses, especially ones that cannot be account for, like negative cultural and biodiversity impacts across the continent,” she says.

“But the continent is very cautious of private sector funding. There is not enough clarity as to how blended finance actually works in practice and it often does not work in equitable ways in order for us to protect local ownership.”

More widely, Mkumbeni also fears that blended finance and the broader global financial architecture “is not fair – is it increasingly placing African countries in even more debt.”

María José Romero, policy and advocacy manager at the European Network on Debt and Development in Brussels, has similarly said that “instead of offering a long-lasting solution, [attempts at] catalysing private investment private investment at scale may be undermining public policy objectives aimed at sustainable development in the Global South, further eroding the role and capacity of the state to provide public infrastructure and services vital to ensuring human rights, development and climate resilience, and leaving countries more vulnerable to debt crises.”

“The evidence that [such efforts have] a positive impact on sustainable development is very limited.”

Given this, Mkumbeni believes that Africa should use the COP30 summit to push for “grant-based, equitable financing options as opposed to taking on more debt” and notes that multilateral development banks, rather than private sector players, would be more appropriate partners to mobilise climate funding for the continent.

The lead-up to this summit suggests that it will likely be a difficult conference for Africa as the continent tries to secure much-needed climate financing in the context of a slowing global economy – and without overburdening itself with debt.

Mkumbeni says that a successful COP would be one that delivers “tangible, well-funded commitments – grant-based finance that reduces Africa’s debt burdens while also offering the continent the ability to mitigate against climate risks.”

A COP for the Global South?

While there are clearly many challenges for Africa to grapple with, Mkumbeni is optimistic that Brazil’s COP presidency will prove to be at least symbolically important for the so-called “Global South.”

“Brazil is in such a unique position right now – with its presidency of both COP and the BRICS, Brazil can offer a spotlight on countries that are in the developing world, but which are increasingly gaining power in international politics,” she tells African Business.

“For Africa and Brazil, both being part of the Global South but also part of BRICS and the G20 coalitions, there is a chance to foster solidarity among emerging economies. This COP is a strategic window for Africa to enhance how it cooperates on issues around climate, especially as there are real similarities between Latin America and Africa.”