Cautious optimism in New York as Nigeria courts investors

Nigerian’s economy is resurgent, but headwinds are expected.

This was the subtext of the conversations and interactions at the high-level global forum hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with JP Morgan and the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York City on April 17th, 2025.

The forum hosted ahead of the 2025 IMF & World Bank Group Spring Meetings provided an opportunity for the CBN to present a score-card before global investors, diaspora leaders & senior financial stakeholders to discuss Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook and reform progress.

The main objective was a focus on engaging with critical voices, gauging the mood and appetite of investors, and charting a path for the future with emphasis on building enduring partnerships and attracting long-term capital.

Proceeding under the theme “The Nigeria Investment Agenda: Pathways for Growth & Global Partnerships,” the forum, led by Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso, opened with a presentation which highlighted outcomes from the CBN’s reform agenda for the past 18 months from monetary tightening to FX market transparency and financial governance.

These reforms, the CBN insisted, are “laying the groundwork for long-term macroeconomic stability and signaling a new era of transparency and confidence.”

But are investors taking notice?

Speaking during the “Repricing Nigeria: Assessing the Scope for Sustained Change” panel, Jason Rekate, global co-head of corporate banking at Citi, said the conversations about investing Nigeria are now more positive. “Clients are asking how soon they can enter, not if.”

Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan Chase, was more circumspect. “Nigeria has made strides, but oil price volatility remains a key risk.”

CBN releases encouraging data

A week before the forum the CBN published a press release highlighting the country’s economic performance in 2024 – a balance of payments (BOP) surplus of $6.83bn for the 2024 financial year marking a turnaround from deficits of $3.34bn in 2023 and $3.32bn in 2022” which the bank said reflected the positive “impact of wide-ranging macroeconomic reforms, stronger trade performance, and renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.”

Other highlights cited by the Bank include a 48.3% rise in gas exports to $8.66bn, a 24.6% increase in non-oil exports to $7.46bn, remittance inflows which rose by 8.9% to $20.93bn and a 43.5% surge in international money transfer operator transactions (IMTO) to $4.73bn up from $3.30bn in 2023.

There was a slight uptick of 6.2% in official development assistance which rose to $3.37bn as portfolio investment inflows rose by 106.5% to $13.35bn, while external reserves increased by $6bn to $40.19bn.

Optimism tempered by oil fears

While the data points to a welcome diversification in revenue sources and a stronger engagement and response from the Nigerian diaspora who were courted last year on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings, investors remain cautious.

Inflation is still in the double digits at 23.18% as the CBN’s monetary policy rate remains unchanged at 27.5%. The naira, which recorded some gains against the dollar in the first quarter of the year, has lost ground but now holds steady at N1,599.94 to the green back.

The oil sector Nigeria is, however, falling behind its OPEC quota of 1.5m bpd and the ambitious 2.06 million bpd target it set for itself.  Headwinds from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the unfolding global trade crisis saw the price of the country’s Brent crude fall more than 20% from $74.95 between April 2 and April 9 when it hit $58.46 per barrel. With the price now hovering around $65 per barrel, it is still far below the budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, leaving the country’s revenue projections in jeopardy. Oil is supposed to account for 56% of its anticipated 2025 revenue.

What does the future hold? Governor Cardoso told Africa Business that he remains upbeat.

“This forum was more than just a meeting of minds, it was a moment of reckoning and renewal,” he noted.

“The insights shared affirmed that Nigeria is on the right path, but also reminded us that credibility is earned through consistency. As we continue implementing reforms, we remain committed to open engagement, evidence-based policy, and building enduring partnerships that can unlock Nigeria’s true investment potential.”

On Friday April 25, 2025 the African Department of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings will host a press briefing on the regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, which will be closely watched for how it affects the IMF’s 2025 growth projections of 4.2% and 3.2% for Africa and Nigeria respectively.