Africa’s eyes on Trump vs Harris

While it is fanciful to expect that more than the tiniest proportion of voters across the US will be voting for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump today on the basis of policy towards Africa, what happens in Washington DC remains of major significance, given the US’s role as the world’s pre-eminent economy and security heavyweight.

Fortunately, neither candidate is a totally unknown quantity in Africa, as African Business has reported.

In March and April 2023 Vice President Harris visited Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana, in a trip focused on innovation. She launched an initiative to extend digital access to 100 million individuals and businesses over the next decade.

While the Harris campaign has not launched an Africa strategy of its own, a continuation of the policies of President Joe Biden is the most likely outcome should she prevail. Biden has prioritised commercial ties, and has called for the reauthorisation and modernisation of the flagship African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to the US market for African exporters – but is due to expire in 2025.

Still, he has been far from a soft touch, excluding countries that do not meet the US’s strict criteria on democratisation and human rights, including previously strong partners such as Ethiopia and Uganda. However, he resisted Congressional efforts to remove South Africa from the programme over its increasingly warm ties with Russia.

Making deals

In December 2022 Biden hosted the US-Africa Leaders Summit, including a flagship business forum at which $5bn in investment commitments were unveiled. A year after the summit, the US claimed it had since helped close 547 new deals worth $14.2bn in two-way trade and investment.

Another priority is the Lobito Corridor, a West and Central Africa transport network for critical minerals and other products which the US has called the most ambitious commercially-led infrastructure project on the continent.

Having served as Biden’s deputy, Harris will be expected to continue much of this work.

On the debit side, despite the expenditure of much diplomatic energy, the administration has failed to broker peace in war-wracked Sudan and was unable to halt the slide to the disastrous Tigrayan war in Ethiopia which raged from late 2020 to 2022. Governments such as South Africa’s are disappointed by the US stance on Gaza and Lebanon.

No introduction required

Donald Trump requires no introduction. With his uncanny knack for giving offence, the former president’s first term was marred by labelling some African countries as “sh*tholes”. His attempts to limit Muslim immigration into the US discriminated against several African nations, and he didn’t bother to fill important ambassadorial posts on the continent in his first term.

Yet his boorish persona and apparent disinterest in Africa, which he never visited in office, obscured some shrewd decisions. Trump launched the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a new emerging markets development bank with a lending capacity of $60bn. Always one for an eye-catching deal, the return of his values-free, nakedly transactional approach may please some African leaders.

Nevertheless, his enduring America First rhetoric – including his promise to double down on tariffs – is sure to alarm others. In recent weeks those plans have reached new rhetorical heights: 60% tariffs on imports from China, 20% on imports from the rest of the world, potentially even 100% on imports from countries threatening to ditch the dollar as the global reserve currency – these are just some of the wild ideas that Trump has floated to win over globalisation-sceptic voters.

The choice is a stark one. Africans can watch, hope, and pray for their favoured candidate – but it’s the US voters who will be making the momentous decision.