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This article was produced with the support of African Risk Capacity Group
In 2023 weather-related natural disasters resulted in over 17,000 fatalities and affected 10m people in 29 African countries where data was available. This is according to a recent white paper published by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) group, which shows that recovery efforts have forced some governments to allocate nearly 10% of their GDP to disaster response, underlining the rising economic costs of increasingly frequent natural disasters.
The research findings reveal that the frequency of weather-related disasters in Africa has increased significantly over the past decade, rising from 32 incidents in 2014 to 56 in 2023. Floods remain the most prevalent extreme weather event. Although droughts are less frequent, they have a more profound impact, affecting larger populations with severe consequences for agriculture, water supply, food security and general economic development.
Tracking the occurrence of weather-related natural disasters since the year 2000, the white paper shows that the worst-affected countries were South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar in southern Africa; Nigeria in the west; and a band stretching north-eastwards from Angola to Ethiopia and Somalia in the Horn of Africa. Globally, Africa ranks third across five continental regions in weather-related disasters, following Asia and the Americas.
Climate change, which is primarily caused by human activities such as deforestation, industrialisation, and the burning of fossil fuels, is causing significant alterations in weather patterns globally. This is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Africa and other parts of the world.
“Understanding the current state of disaster risk management and the challenges and opportunities it presents amid heightened climate change is crucial for informing effective response strategies. The publication of this white paper marks an important step forward in our ambition to contribute to knowledge creation,” says Ibrahima Cheikh Diong, director general of ARC.
Building the capacity to plan and respond
The reactive approach – responding after a disaster has already hit – is no longer fit for purpose, Diong contends. Early Warning Systems (EWS) have proven to be highly effective in improving governments’ capacity to prepare, plan and respond to natural disasters.
“What stands out clearly in the paper is that EWS can make a significant difference in terms of saving lives,” he asserts. These systems monitor and predict hazards such as floods and droughts, aiming to reduce the risks associated with them.
By acting before a hazard hits, the impact of disasters can be reduced, and most crucially, lives can be saved. Just 24 hours’ notice of an impending hazardous event can cut the ensuing damage by up to 30%. Similarly, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction estimates that countries with early warning systems coverage that is substantial or comprehensive have one-eighth the disaster mortality of those with limited or no coverage.
“It’s simply unacceptable that only 40% of Africa is currently covered by EWS and even those are compromised by quality issues. We must make EWS readily available to each and every country on the continent – something that ARC is relentlessly pursuing,” says Diong
Africa RiskView, ARC’s early warning system designed to anticipate and manage climate risks, is actively being used by ARC member states across the continent. It allows estimation of the numbers of people affected by disasters and the response cost. “It’s a crucial part of our efforts to enhance countries’ preparedness to climate-related natural disasters,” Diong says.
ARC’s value proposition brings together four critical elements of preparedness for member states: capacity building; early warning; risk pooling; and risk transfer. The risk pooling and transfer offering is made possible through ARC Ltd, our insurance affiliate. This is thanks to innovative parametric insurance models.
Expanding parametric insurance coverage in Africa
ARC Ltd, the insurance affiliate of the ARC Group, carries out the insurance functions of risk pooling and risk transfer, providing comprehensive parametric insurance to AU member states to help them better respond to disasters.
Parametric insurance uses satellite data and EWS to predict and estimate the impact of a disaster beforehand. It determines the compensation (in the form of an insurance payout) when a disaster happens. Unlike traditional insurance, which depends on detailed assessments and claims processing, parametric insurance offers immediate emergency relief. A payout is triggered after a disaster event based on predefined parameters such as rainfall levels. This speedy response enables affected countries to access funds quickly for recovery and relief efforts.
In a sign that governments are warming up to parametric insurance, ARC Ltd has seen significant growth in its 10-year premium income, from under $17m in 2014 to $56.8m in 2023. During the same period, the insured value has risen from $129m to $186m. Notably, a large proportion of risk cover is for droughts. Despite facing affordability challenges, the number of insured countries has increased from four in 2014 to thirteen in 2022, and further jumped to twenty-four countries in 2023. Since 2014 ARC has paid out more than $125m, but this figure is set to increase in the coming years due to the addition of new products to cover floods as well as outbreaks and epidemics.
Lesley Ndlovu, ARC Ltd. CEO, notes that the organisation has emerged as “the largest and most dominant parametric insurance player in Africa”. He argues that although there has been growing interest from the international community in disaster risk insurance, the challenge in Africa is to make it more accessible and mainstream. “This trend is shifting as governments intensify their efforts to manage the impact of climate change,” he adds.
Women bear the brunt of natural disasters
While natural disasters strike indiscriminately, their impact often falls disproportionately on women and girls. Existing gender inequalities exacerbate vulnerabilities, leaving women more exposed to harm during and after crises.
Research shows that women and children are more likely to die in disasters than men, due to factors such as limited resources and societal roles. Social norms and economic disparities further compound these risks, hindering women’s access to vital information and aid. In the aftermath, they face heightened dangers of sexual harassment, exploitation, and domestic violence.
The devastating Cyclone Freddy in Malawi last year is a stark example. Hundreds of thousands were displaced, with women and girls particularly affected. Reports of sexual harassment in displacement camps surfaced, while the loss of crops and livelihoods disproportionately burdened female farmers. The added pressures of unpaid care work intensified women’s struggles in the crisis.
These challenges underscore the urgent need for gender-sensitive disaster preparedness and response plans, contends Boroto Ntakobajira, gender expert at ARC. He notes that societal norms can impact women’s ability to respond to natural disasters in a timely and appropriate manner.
“If we talk about flooding, where people need to swim to safety for example, you find that in many of our communities, swimming is not a skill that women are encouraged to learn. In some regions, women’s clothing limits their ability to move.” Ntakobajira also offers the example of some women not being allowed to leave the house without a male companion or getting only limited access to mobile phones, radios and other forms of modern communication. These factors can lead to delays in women getting access to information on imminent natural disasters, cutting them off from life-saving early warning systems.
Optimistic despite challenges
Diong admits that Africa still has significant ground to cover in optimising its disaster response mechanisms to be more precise at predicting potentially disastrous events and saving lives.
However, when asked if there has been any improvement in African governments’ disaster response compared to four years ago, Diong says: “I’ve seen different changes in the right direction. One of the things I’ve noticed quite often at the AU summits is that heads of states of countries that benefit from ARC are our biggest advocates. I’ve seen the presidents of Malawi and Senegal take the floor and confirm the benefits of ARC in their countries,” he says.
“They have advocated for the empowerment of Africa’s own development institutions and the need to give them more resources, more visibility, and more support.”
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