Kikwete prepares for the end game

Eye on a successor
Despite the flurry of promises that have followed the announcement, Tanzanian economist at the University of Dar es Salaam, Stephen Kirama, believes Kikwete’s attempts to revamp his cabinet are futile, and that the appointees will be beleaguered by the same challenges as their predecessors.

“You cannot expect [the Ministries] to perform as required. They could have all the required professionalism to undertake the assignment but simply be constrained by funds,” he said, giving the example of the Ministry of Livestock Development and Fisheries, which required TSh100bn ($60m) to fulfil its mandate in 2012/13 but was only allocated a third of this amount.

Their inability to perform, Kirama adds, will be compounded by the downturn in government activity that precedes every general election. Ministers are elected members of a constituency and are already gearing up for the elections, he said. As such, the most common activity would be pork-barrel spending, a derogatory term that sees spending in the run-up to elections only benefiting constituents in return for political support.

While Kikwete’s new ministers may indeed be distracted in coming months by the need to curry favour from their constituencies, the notable lack of big names – with the exception of Migiro – has been viewed as a strategic move to bring in people who do not have ambitions of running for president in 2015.

Migiro’s appointment, however, and her regional tour across the west of the country in February, has pundits suggesting she has received Kikwete’s seal of approval and is being proposed as CCM’s presidential candidate for 2015.

She will be pitted against other presidential candidates including former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who resigned five years ago after being implicated in a corruption scandal, Foreign Minister Bernard Membe and Minister for East African Cooperation, Samuel Sitta.

And so as Tanzania prepares for what could be its most highly contested presidential election yet, Kikwete’s final moves in government are being seen as a last-ditch effort to secure his legacy and the survival of his political party.