This article was produced with the support of Absa
A view that surfaced repeatedly during the Africa Debate in London this month was that Africa may be undergoing a shift in its trade and investment paradigm. It is the sort of phrase that often attracts healthy scepticism, partly because every period of disruption tends to produce predictions of a new era with a new set of rules. But what made this proposition difficult to dismiss was the extent to which it appeared across conversations that were otherwise very different in nature.
During a panel I had the privilege of moderating, bringing together voices from trade policy, development finance, regional economic governance, and international investment, the discussion kept returning to a similar observation: that some of the macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds creating uncertainty across the global economy may also be fundamentally changing the way investors think about Africa’s place within it. And perhaps more importantly, how Africa thinks of itself.
The question, of course, is whether this really amounts to a paradigm shift at all.
One could argue that the continent’s trade and investment landscape has been evolving for decades, but for much of that time economic development was largely pursued through national self-determination, advancing in a piecemeal fashion from one market to the next. Fragmentation has consequences. Capital tends to pool in familiar destinations, reinforcing established investment corridors while leaving opportunities elsewhere competing for attention. It can also limit resilience when external shocks occur, a reality once again brought into focus by recent tensions in the Middle East and the disruption of one of the world’s most strategically important trade routes, alongside the volatility created by new tariff regimes in the United States and shifting trade policies across some of the world’s largest economies.
But those same pressures are also creating opportunities for Africa to reposition itself. Growing competition for the critical minerals underpinning the energy transition has increased the continent’s strategic importance within global trade and industrial supply chains, giving it greater influence over how future economic relationships are structured.
Determining whether a new paradigm is emerging now therefore requires looking at the issue through two distinct lenses: principle and practice. Practice is perhaps the easier of the two, because it is ultimately reflected in market behaviour. If a new paradigm is emerging, it should be evident in where capital is flowing, who is deploying it, and what opportunities are attracting attention. On all three fronts, there are indications that something is changing.
Consider the United States. U.S.-Africa trade reached almost $105 billion in 2024, yet much of the current conversation is dominated by uncertainty surrounding the future of AGOA, the programme that has underpinned much of the relationship for the past quarter century. Its temporary lapse in 2025, subsequent short-term reinstatement, and ongoing debate around what comes next arguably say as much about how Africa’s position has changed as it does about America’s. The era in which access to a single major market could define the continent’s trade and investment proposition is steadily giving way to one in which African policymakers and business leaders are managing a growing portfolio of commercial partnerships spanning China, Europe, the Gulf states and an expanding group of middle powers, each competing for influence and access.
This is not to say that appetite from the U.S. private sector has been lost, nor that Africa’s interest in the relationship has diminished. There is still strong interest from many of our own clients at Absa looking to trade and invest across the continent, but what has changed, at least in part, is a perception of heightened risk and a growing demand for guidance on how best to navigate it.
China, meanwhile, has capitalised on these challenges, with Beijing’s recent decision to extend zero-tariff access to a wide range of African exports expected to strengthen its position as the continent’s largest single-country trading partner following record bilateral trade of $275 billion in 2024. Yet here too, the relationship is changing. From Absa’s engagements with clients and policymakers globally and across Africa, it is clear the continent is seeking to leverage the aforementioned disruption by establishing trade and investment engagement on stronger terms. The ask is for greater participation in industrial value creation, and while the energy transition is creating new areas of commercial interest that extend beyond traditional infrastructure and extractives, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) arrangements are becoming a more prominent feature of the relationship, sitting alongside trade and technology exports in ways that would have looked quite different a decade ago.
Competition from China has also arguably forced a more deliberate European response, with initiatives such as Global Gateway recognising Africa’s trade and investment potential in the context of a more regionalised global market. But while the EU has moved to position itself as a long-term investment partner, progress on the trade side of the relationship has been less pronounced, with trade from several major European economies stagnating over the last decade, in part because the policy architecture has not always kept pace with the ambition of the relationship. Without deeper bilateral arrangements with key African economies, Europe risks having the language of partnership without the commercial machinery to match it.
On the other hand, the Gulf states have become one to watch. Over a relatively short period of time, the United Arab Emirates, for example, has established itself as one of the continent’s most active economic partners, recently becoming the largest backer of new business projects in Africa. What makes this particularly noteworthy is not only the scale of capital being deployed, but the speed at which new trade relationships are being formed. The UAE now ranks among the most important export destinations for several African economies, including Zimbabwe and Uganda, illustrating how quickly the geography of Africa’s external economic relationships can change.
Much of the UAE’s engagement with Africa has been driven through state-backed investment and public-private partnerships, although private-sector participation has also grown considerably in recent years, leaving significant scope for broader engagement across a wider range of sectors and markets. What we have noted from our engagements with clients is that one area attracting particular attention is the UAE’s large family business sector. These enterprises have long played a central role in the Emirati economy, and there are signs that many are beginning to look beyond traditional markets as they explore opportunities across a wider range of African countries.
These are indications that a new paradigm may be emerging. Trade and investment activity is becoming more diverse, both in terms of who is participating and where interest is being directed. But whether this can evolve into something more meaningful depends on whether the principles needed to support it are also falling into place.
Perhaps the clearest example of this is the African Continental Free Trade Area. As of 2025, 49 countries had deposited their instruments of ratification, more than 40 had submitted tariff offers, service liberalisation had begun across five priority sectors, and thousands of AfCFTA certificates of origin had already been issued. Intra-African trade grew by 12.4% in 2024 to more than $220 billion, a development many see as evidence that the agreement is beginning to gain traction.
The detail, and ultimately the success, however, is in the execution. Africa still accounts for only around 3% of global trade, while intra-African trade represents just 14.4% of the continent’s formal trade. Those figures speak to the scale of the task ahead and the need to move beyond policy ambition towards the effective implementation of the mechanisms required to support trade both within Africa and beyond it. For example, if there is one lesson that has emerged repeatedly from conversations across the trade and investment community, it is that there needs to be a deliberate focus on both hard infrastructure and addressing the factors that contribute to the continent’s risk premium.
For all their differences, many of the reforms taking place across the continent are underpinned by a similar idea: that Africa is likely to carry more economic weight together than it does in parts. The pace at which integration efforts have advanced over the last decade suggests that this is no longer an aspiration, but an important organising principle for how the continent engages the global economy.
As for the question that sat at the centre of so many discussions at the Africa Debate, the answer is that Africa is indeed entering a new trade and investment paradigm, albeit one that is still in transition. The activity is there and the institutional foundations are beginning to take shape. If the trajectory holds, it may prove to be one of the most consequential economic shifts in the continent’s modern history.