What began as a bold bet on Africa’s largest single-train refinery – the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos – has now evolved into a strategic buffer for the continent: stabilising fuel supply, strengthening macroeconomic resilience and insulating African economies from the cascading shocks triggered by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
At the heart of this transformation is Afreximbank’s decision to underwrite $2.5bn of a $4bn syndicated term loan, the largest share of the facility. This commitment, alongside earlier working capital support and the Bank’s leadership of the naira-for-crude initiative, has positioned Nigeria to achieve a milestone once thought distant: becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Ending the ‘oil-rich but fuel-poor’ paradox
For decades Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, imported as much as 90% of its refined fuel. This dependence drained the country’s foreign exchange reserves, exposed the economy to global price volatility and created chronic supply instability across West and Central Africa.
The Dangote refinery, with its 650,000 barrel per day capacity, has flipped this equation. Backed by Afreximbank’s financing, the refinery has ramped up production of diesel, aviation fuel and premium motor spirit, enabling Nigeria to reduce imports dramatically and begin supplying neighbouring markets. The refinery is also supplying Jet A fuel to countries as far flung as India and the US.
This shift is more than symbolic. It represents a structural correction in Africa’s energy architecture. By replacing imported fuel with regionally-refined products, the refinery is strengthening Nigeria’s external balances, reducing pressure on African currencies from imports, lowering logistics costs for fuel-dependent sectors and improving energy affordability for households and businesses
In effect, Afreximbank’s investment has catalysed a new era of African energy self-sufficiency.
A strategic shield against global disruptions
The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which up to a quarter of global oil trade passes, have sent shockwaves through global supply chains. The ripple effects have been severe: rising fuel prices, higher shipping costs and disruptions to the movement of fertiliser and food commodities.
For Africa, which imports over $35bn in fuel annually and relies heavily on Middle Eastern shipping routes, the risks are substantial. Yet the continent has been better positioned to withstand these shocks precisely because of the Dangote refinery’s emergence as a regional stabiliser.
By supplying diesel and aviation fuel to West Africa and gradually expanding exports to Central and Southern Africa, the refinery has effectively reduced Africa’s exposure to Middle Eastern supply disruptions, softened the inflationary impact of global fuel price spikes, ensured the continuity of logistics, and strengthened aviation and food distribution networks.
In a moment of global fragility, Africa’s largest refinery has become a continental shock absorber.
Protecting Africa’s food and fertiliser security
The supply disruptions in the strait have affected more than fuel and gas; it has also impacted and destabilised fertiliser markets. For Africa, which imports nearly 70% of its fertiliser, much of it routed through the Middle East, such disruptions and the rising freight costs and delayed shipments impact planting seasons and food production.
Here again, Afreximbank’s long-term partnership with the Dangote Group has proven decisive. The Bank previously financed the Dangote Fertiliser Plant, now the largest facility in Africa producing granulated urea, an essential fertiliser.
In its performance report for 2025, the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) reported that urea was the number two export earner for the country with total receipts of $1.29bn, with Dangote the second largest contributor.
Together with the refinery, these industrial assets form a strategic backbone for Africa’s food and energy security.
With domestic fuel and fertiliser production rising, Nigeria and increasingly Africa is less vulnerable to external shocks that once triggered food crises and inflationary spirals.
A model of African capital backing African industrialisation
Afreximbank’s investment is also a powerful demonstration of what African institutions can achieve when they mobilise capital at scale. As Afreximbank’s leadership has repeatedly emphasised, the Bank’s support for the Dangote Group is rooted in a philosophy of African solutions to African development challenges.
By providing long-term financing, structuring complex facilities and anchoring investor confidence, Afreximbank has shown that African development finance institutions (DFIs) can lead and not just follow in building transformative industrial assets.
A continental turning point
The Dangote refinery is more than an industrial complex; it is a strategic asset reshaping Africa’s economic trajectory.
It is enabling Nigeria to become a net exporter of fuel, reducing the continent’s dependence on volatile global markets and providing a buffer against geopolitical disruptions that threaten food, fertiliser and energy security.
Afreximbank’s investment has not only strengthened one company; it has strengthened a continent.